Rip's Picks for Friday
AT MONMOUTH
1 - JUDY'S GONAWIN cuts back to 6 furlongs, is reunited with Elliott and drops to career-low claiming tag. DARING CAT takes suspicious drop, but can't be ruled out with switch to dirt sprint. FIREY INFERNO became beaten favorite when lowered to this level.
2 - DANI'S DESTINY beat three of this same field including OLIGOPOLIST. SOUTHERN MOONSHINE becomes threat with speed from rail.
3 - TIZNOW MY WAY drops back to level where he was claimed away from Levine. Defeated top pick in May, but was DQ'd. EVENINGS PALS sinks back to price where he was winner with Lezcano up.
4 - JADE PINK tumbles in class and plunges from grass route to dirt sprint for hot rider-trainer combo; broke maiden in debut in quick dash. HAPPYTODANCWITHYOU will draw big-time support sinking from $12,500 to $5,000 for Levine (45% winners). KRIS' MARYBETH drops after poor start, squeezed trip.
5 - BACK IN BALTIMORE makes debut for Servis off one bullet work in Philly. Price play. HOPEFORTHEBEST and SALSBURG both add Lasix and blinkers.
6 - Race sets up for FENAGHVILLE (BEST BET), who stretches out after gaining ground in 7-furlong Belmont turf dash. Stalks BALLYMOY and CARSON HALL until it counts.
7 - ROMAN SILVER met better at Belmont and never got a fast track. PERSUASION showed speed in switch to Monmouth and last two works. COACH SHAW saves ground from rail.
8 - AMERICAN BORDER steps up off claim fit after good finish behind repeat winner. MADAME BRILLON has 6-for-13 habit of placing second. QUIET NOW might be top pick with better post.
9 - JUKE BOCKS HERO tumbles into claimer after dull debut where she got 4-1 money. ALY BLAIR is also threat in soft spot for debut. FOREVER NAUGHTY beat three of this same field. MORE SPICE also must be considered in first start.
AT BELMONT (NOTE: POST TIME ON FRIDAYS IS 3 P.M.)
1 - RUSSIAN SAGE (beats state-breds at same level), Theconfidenceman/Laysh Laysh Laysh entry, Trimaran
2 - GREG'S LASSY (stumbled at start at 4-5), Smokin Sarah, Blue Devil Bel
3 - TRIPI/TOO TIRED TONIGHT (stablemates ran 1-2 in last two outings), Boss Tiffany, Cool the Economy
4 - WONDEROUS DAY (steadied; still second), Trip to the Bank, Fiumes
5 - ALGIERS (back in claimer), Run Lightening Run, Ballado Alert/El Cesar entry
6 - MAGIC SHOP (had to be steadied; gain ground again in stretch), Distinctive Doc, Mizzenkey
7 - T HARRY (BEST BET) (2-for-2 this year; 3-for-4 on Belmont turf), Holiday Trip, C Street
8 - RATHOR (down from grade stakes), Diamond Isle, Shone
9 - PIMENTINHA (drops after missing by neck), Wonderwho'sbest, Whateverwillbwillb. Blue Hilly Bay
(c) 2008 NJ
Another Dominating Win For J Be K
Winning for the fourth time this season and collecting his third graded victory, Zayat Stables' J Be K stamped himself as one of the legitimate leaders of the sprint division, putting on a dominating performance in the $150,000 Jersey Shore Stakes (gr. III) July 4 at Monmouth Park.
Taking over shortly after a quarter-mile under Garrett Gomez, J Be K easily pulled away from his five rivals, extending his lead with every stride. The 3-year-old son of Silver Deputy was in total command at the top of the stretch and cruised to the wire four lengths in front of runner-up Silver Edition. It was a repeat of the June 7 Woody Stephens (gr. II) at Belmont when the pair finished one-two. The margin of victory that time was 5 1/2 lengths.
J Be K completed the six-furlong Jersey Shore in 1:09.10 on a fast main track. Indy Joe was six more lengths back in third under Joe Bravo.
Trained by Steve Asmussen, J Be K has now won five of seven lifetime starts with earnings of $427,200. His other graded stakes victory this year came at Aqueduct when he won the April 5 Bay Shore (gr. III) by five lengths. The dark bay colt is now a perfect five-for-five when travelling seven furlongs or less.
Early on J Be K was one of four horses competing for the lead, as Go Go Shoot, Bright Pick, and Indy Joe were barely separated before the turn. Go Go Shoot and Jose Lezcano eventually found themselves on the front end after the first call, getting a quarter-mile in a speedy :21.46. But shortly thereafter Gomez moved J Be K to the lead and by the time they approached the quarter-pole it was lights out for his rivals.
"Going into the race, I knew I had the best horse, so I really wanted to keep him in the clear and out of trouble," said Gomez, who throttled his mount down in the late stages. "People don't really think he has any speed, but if you look back at his 2-year-old line at Saratoga, you see differently. He's a great horse with a great mind, and is maturing at a good rate. He's like a teenager just getting out of high school and adjusting to everything the right way. He's a very nice horse."
Asmussen's assistant trainer Toby Sheets added: "He's a sharp breaker, so the plan was to just let him hop out of the gate and go from there. I didn't expect four horses to be going for the lead, but it all worked out well. We'll see how he comes out of this race. Garrett geared him down toward the wire, which should have saved something for his next race. He was real impressive today."
Going off as the overwhelming 2-5 choice, J Be K paid $2.80, $2.20, and $2.10. The exacta (5-3) returned $8.40, while trifecta (5-3-6) was just $20.40.
Bred in Kentucky by Glory Days Breeding, J Be K is out of the Valid Wager mare Major Wager. He was purchased for $350,000 at the 2007 Fasig-Tipton Florida select sale of 2-year-olds in training.
(c) 2008 The Blood-Horse, Inc.
Tall Texan is three for three
Undefeated in three sprint starts, Tall Texan will try a longer distance in the seventh race today at Hollywood Park. The $61,000 optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles is part of a pick six with a two-day carry-over of $747,253.
Being a son of 2001 Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Point Given, the 4-year-old gelding shouldn't have any problem with the stretch to 8 1/2 furlongs.
Owned by R.D. Hubbard and John T.L. Jones, Jr. International and trained by Richard Mandella, Tall Texan has yet to receive much mutuel respect despite a 3-for-3 beginning to his career. The $70,000 yearling purchase has yet to be favored in a race.
Tall Texan was 14-1 when winning his debut by 1 1/2 lengths on Feb. 15 at Santa Anita, was 7-2 when a nose winner on March 16, then was 4-1 when clicking again in his first at Hollywood Park on May 31.
Victor Espinoza remains with the bay, who will break from post two against five opponents. The only other member of the field coming off a win is Mostacolli Mort. Owned by breeder Jeff Nielsen's Everest Stables, Inc. and trained by Julio Canai, the 4-year-old Hold For Gold gelding won a softer optional claimer by a bit more than two lengths on May 26.
The win was the second in the last three outings for Mostacolli Mort, who will be ridden by Tyler Baze.
Race of the day: Redefined will be looking for his seventh win on the Belmont Park turf in the eighth race. Cornelio Velasquez will ride the 7-year-old son of Labeeb for owners Joscelyn Dubb and Sandy Robbins and trainer Tony Dutrow in the $57,000 optional claimer at six furlongs. Redefined lost by a nose in an overnight handicap restricted to New York breds in his first start of 2008 on May 31.
One for the road: Ridge Royale steps up after being claimed and adds blinkers in the sixth race today at Churchill Downs. Julien Leparoux takes over on the 3-year-old Cactus Ridge colt for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey and trainer Mike Maker in the $41,000 maiden contest at 5 1/2 furlongs. Maker claimed Ridge Royale for $50,000 for the Ramseys out of a third place finish on May 31.
Exotically speaking: An early pick four using Skyspy, Yankee Visionary and High Stakes Silver in the first, Courtly Jazz, Hemet and Outside Looking In in the second, Informed and Angus in the third and Vanaldi and Deputy Prize in the fourth.
Winners: (previous day/meet total): 0/115. Money (previous day/meet total): $0/$682.20. Total money bet: $796.
(c) 2008 Los Angeles Times
Last Minute Belmont Stakes Picks
Good morning, racing fans! All the excitement, hoof injuries and betting action has come down to today. The final jewel in the Triple Crown that may make Big Brown the biggest name in racing. If you don't have your Belmont picks yet, don't worry. Let Bodog Racebook's resident expert take the reigns (pun intended) and help you with that racing form of yours.
Dave Tuley was the Daily Racing Form's full-time Las Vegas correspondent from 2000 through May 2007 and now writes a weekly column for DRF and owns a new website called ViewFromVegas.com. Here are his Belmont Picks.
The Belmont stakes Top Contenders: Again, most people think it's Big Brown and the rest. However, Casino Drive is also undefeated and comes in off an impressive victory in the Grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes over this same racecourse. Tale of Ekati, winner of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, is the only other Grade 1 winner in the field.
How the Race Will be Run: With the mile and a half distance (which none of these horses have ever run and probably will never run again), the pace will likely be pedestrian. From the No. 1 post, Big Brown might inherit the lead by default or sit right behind Casino Drive, Da' Tara or maybe Tale of Ekati. Those should all be around at the turn for home and the leader will have to hold off closers such as Macho Again, Denis of Cork and Icabad Crane.
Dave's Belmont Stakes Picks to Win:
Macho Again finished second to Big Brown in the Preakness, even though he never really threatened the winner. He gains the services of top jockey Garrett Gomez, who is still without a Classic victory. At 20-1 on the morning line, Macho Again should definitely outrun his odds and I give him a better-than-average chance of pulling the upset if he becomes the first to challenge Big Brown eye to eye down the stretch.
Casino Drive has been hailed as the one most likely to spoil BIG Brown's Triple Crown bid. After winning his maiden race in Japan, he came over here and won over the Belmont track, which is a good sign. Downgraded him a little as his connections have avoided working him on the wet surface earlier this week, so he might need a fast track.
Big Brown is the class of the field, but he's still trying to overcome many obstacles, including hoof problems, and trying to win three races over five weeks against horses fresher than he. If he pulls off the feat, he deserves every accolade. But I'm betting against it.
Dave's Longshot Pick: Icabad Crane was my longshot play in the Preakness and he finished third. Oftentimes, I get on improving horses a race or two early, so I definitely have to use him again. He has the right to improve off that first graded stakes effort. Icabad Crane is also only one of three entrants with a win over a wet track if the skies open Denis of Cork and Da' Tara being the others.
It's not too late to place your Belmont Stakes betting! Head over to the Bodog Racebook for all your Belmont and Triple Crown odds.
(c) Bodog
McNamara's stakes picks for Saturday at Belmont Park
There's a $1-million guaranteed all-stakes Pick 6 on races 6-11 Saturday at Belmont Park, plus a $1-million guaranteed Pick 4 on races 8-11. Let's see if I can smoke out a few winners.
Race 6: Grade II True North Handicap (6 furlongs)
Benny the Bull will be heavily favored, and it's hard to go against him. Big Brown's outstanding stablemate has been training quickly and steadily for his first start since taking the $2-million Golden Shaheen in Dubai March 29. Abraaj, Saint Daimon and Man of Danger should provide plenty of pace to set up Benny's powerful late move. 1. Benny the Bull 2. Thor's Echo 3. Man of Danger
Race 7: Grade I Just a Game Stakes (mile, turf, fillies and mares)
Vacare has won twice off long layoffs and gets my vote to do it again in her first start since October. She's an excellent finisher, and post 10 in a one-turn mile at Belmont isn't a big deal to overcome. 1. Vacare 2. Lady of Venice 3. Bit of Whimsy.
Race 8: Grade I Acorn Stakes (mile, 3-year-old fillies)
Last year's 2-year-old filly champion, Indian Blessing, has been training long and strong for Bob Baffert since her first loss March 8 at the Fair Grounds. The filly who ran her down that day, Proud Spell, went on to win the Kentucky Oaks, and Indian Blessing has no rival that good in here. She gets the blinkers taken off, which might make her more rateable, and a one-turn mile should suit her perfectly. 1. Indian Blessing 2. Zaftig 3. Golden Doc A
Race 9: Grade II Woody Stephens Stakes (7 furlongs)
J Be K is a need-to-lead type who may get more pace pressure than he'd prefer from another front-runner, True Quality, who'll be gunning from the rail. If the fractions are too quick, maybe Groomedforvictory can close to get the money for the blazing hot barn of Barclay Tagg. 1. Groomedforvictory 2. Ready's Image 3. J Be K
Race 10: Grade I Manhattan Handicap (1 1/4 miles, turf)
Of Saturday's six stakes, I found this one by far the hardest to figure. Shakis and Better Talk Now are distance-loving old guys who have seen better days. They're in slumps, and many of the others will have trouble getting 1 1/4 miles or haven't tried it. Dancing Forever has been on a roll for Shug McGaughey, falling a neck short of winning his last three. He'll get the distance, though he might want to run a little farther, and should be coming with a big run late for underrated grass jockey Rene Douglas. I don't like post 10 on the inner turf, but I couldn't make a strong case for anybody else. 1. Dancing Forever 2. Strike a Deal. 3. Proudinsky.
Race 11: Grade I Belmont Stakes (1 1/2 miles)
I'll be making only one bet on the big one, a $40 cold exacta, Big Brown on top of Denis of Cork. As Denis of Cork's trainer, David Carroll, said: "We're very happy about how he is coming into this race. Throw out the Illinois Derby and you see a very consistent horse who deserves to run here.'' Even if Casino Drive runs second, I won't regret opposing him, because his odds (7-2 morning line) make him an underlay, and he's been training slowly and oddly.
1. Big Brown 2. Denis of Cork 3. Casino Drive
(c) 2008, Newsday Inc.
Horse Race Betting Pick of the Day - Belmont Park Race 8
It's crazy how things work in thoroughbred horse racing betting. The day after Edgar Prado takes the ride on Casino Drive in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, Big Brown's trainer, Richard Dutrow, puts Edgar Prado onto one of the favorites in Race 8 at Belmont Park.
Even though the Dutrow/Prado horse isn't my pick of the day, she certainly rates a very long look in this race.
Let's get to it!
Belmont Park Race 8
$55,000 n1x Allowance
6 furlongs on the dirt
Loving Vindication - - 4/1 morning line
This daughter of Vindication broke her maiden in her second lifetime start. Then, in her last race, she caught a muddy field at Churchill Downs and ended up finishing off the board. That doesn't bother me all that much. Loving Vindication is trained by Bobby Frankel and with the speed to her inside, I expect her to get a terrific trip right behind the Todd Pletcher, and morning line favorite, trained Tale of the West. Big Brown's jockey, Kent Desormeaux, gets the call on her. She will make her presence felt in this race.
Tale of the West - - 2/1 morning line
This Todd Pletcher trained miss absolutely dominated a maiden special weight field in her first lifetime start. She definitely has the ability to go gate to wire in this one, but being inside of Loving Vindication will do her no favors as Desormeaux can get Loving Vindication to relax right off of Tale of the West while Tale of the West pretty much has to gun it from the outset. Still, that maiden victory at the Kenneland meet was awfully impressive.
City Bird - - 2/1 morning line
Comes off a freshening for Dutrow and Prado and has every right to beat this field, but I'm not sold. She ran terribly in her last race, before the freshening, and I do think that she might need one. If she does win, watch the picture taking to see if Dutrow and Prado do an Ari Gold man-hug. Especially after Prado took the mount on Casino Drive!
(c) 1994-2008 BetUS
A mint julep and $25 assures me of a great Derby day
01:00 AM EDT on Saturday, May 3, 2008
It's Derby Day, when everyone in America is a fan of thoroughbred racing.
Unfortunately, on most other days, hardly anyone in America pays much attention to thoroughbred racing.
The country's number-one spectator sport prior to World War II, regularly garnering headlines in newspapers from coast-to-coast, thoroughbred racing has been declining in popularity ever since.
Oh, the glamorous summer race meetings at Saratoga and Del Mar, just up the coast from San Diego, draw well. And the Triple Crown races - the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, the Preakness at Pimlico, in Baltimore, and the Belmont Stakes at beautiful Belmont Park - as well as the Breeders Cup races late in the fall, are reminiscent of the glory days of racing, with all seats filled, both in the stands and in the press box.
But it's only a relatively small number of hard-core devotees who follow the sport from day-to-day with the same fervor that other fans do the NFL, or major league baseball, or the NBA.
Count me among that number.
Perhaps it has something to do with growing up in the shadow of Narragansett Park, but I've enjoyed thoroughbred racing since I was a kid.
While most other sports writers were fretting over their mock drafts, or handicapping the NBA playoffs, I've been studying the past performances of the Derby contenders.
So, for what it's worth, as my buddy Billy Reynolds likes to say, here’s my analysis of the 134th Run for the Roses:
The likely favorite is undefeated, but lightly-raced, Big Brown, who's 3-for-3 in his short, but spectacular, career. He broke his maiden on grass at Saratoga as a 2-year-old last summer, winning by 11 1/4 lengths, but, bothered by foot problems, didn't race again until March 5 at Gulfstream Park, in Hallandale, Fla.
That race also was supposed to be on the turf, but wet weather caused a shift to dirt. That didn't matter to Big Brown, who blew away four overmatched rivals to win by 12 3/4 lengths.
Encouraged by that performance, trainer Richard Dutrow Jr. decided to enter Big Brown in the Florida Derby. Despite starting on the far outside, in post position 12, and racing wide around the first turn, he led all the way around in the 1 1/8-mile race, setting fast fractions, but still winning by five lengths.
"Riding him was like bounding through a meadow," jockey Kent Desormeaux said. "He just galloped around. When a horse sets fractions like that and still tells me that he's got more, and that the other horses can't get to him, that's something special. He's a major talent - possibly the best horse I've ridden."
The Kentucky Derby is a furlong farther. It is the first time the twenty 3-year-olds entered will have run 1 1/4 miles. That's a long way to race on the front end - particularly when there are several other horses entered that like to come out of the gate quickly, and especially at Churchill Downs, with its long stretch run. And it also should be noted that it's been 93 years, since Regret, in 1915, that a horse with just three career starts has won the Derby.
Although traffic problems always are a danger in an unusually full field - typically, there are no more than 12 horses (the number that fit in one starting gate) in a race - I like the "closers" in the Derby.
A "closer" allows the speed horses to go to the front early in the race, hoping that a hot early pace will tire the leaders, who then will be vulnerable to horses running late, from behind.
Although horses such as Gayego, winner of the Arkansas Derby (which in recent years has sent on the likes of Curlin, Afleet Alex, and Smarty Jones, to bigger and better things); Blue Grass Stakes winner Monba, trained by Todd Pletcher, the nation's number-one conditioner (although he's never won a Kentucky Derby); and the impressive Colonel John, best of the West Coast contingent, should get first run on the early leaders from stalking positions, I'm counting on a closer to win.
Now, the question is: Which one?
Going into the Blue Grass Stakes, my Derby horse was Pyro, winner of the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds, in New Orleans. He was a disappointing 10th of 12 at Keeneland, but the track there is synthetic, rather than dirt (as at Fair Grounds and Churchill Downs) and he obviously didn't like the surface. So I'm throwing out that race, and counting on Pyro, who's trained by the highly-capable Steve Asmussen, to return to the form he showed in Louisiana.
He's not my only pick, however. The odds will be such that I can afford to play several horses "on top."
I also like another Asmussen horse, Z Fortune, who was a close second to Gallego in the Arkansas Derby after being caught four wide around both turns. Bill Mott, one of the best in the business, is putting blinkers on Court Vision, who'll be making his third start of the year. And there are some in Louisville this week who are raving about Denis of Cork, who'll go off at a big price.
So here's what I'm going to do: $1 exactas on Pyro and Z Fortune over each other and Court Vision, Denis of Cork, Colonel John, Monba, Gayego, Big Brown, and Cool Coal Man, at a cost of $16. Then I'll bet $3 to win and $2 to show on Court Vision, and $2 to win and $2 to show on Denis of Cork, for a total investment of $25.
Then I'm going to sit back and sip a mint julep - in a silver cup, of course - and enjoy the greatest two minutes in sports.
jdonalds@projo.com
(c) 2008 , Published by The Providence Journal Co., 75 Fountain St., Providence, RI 02902.
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